David Mertz

David Mertz

From last week’s findings, I saw that one of the top threats from one worldwide threat assessment to the next, is cyber security was and is the top rising threat toward our country. Also, the threat of counter-intelligence, as well as other prominent state and non-state actors joining the ranks of ISIL and other terrorist organizations in the fight against the Western hemisphere. After reading this week’s Strategic National Risk Assessment, I would say that the comparison of these threats is ranked amongst the top. A group of threats that I failed to rank and put amongst the top, were the threats of natural hazards that have become a real concern for our nation. They contrast compared to the WTA concerns in regard to, they have become more relevant than what was mentioned in the two assessments from last week.

For example, the SNRA participants identified the events listed in Table 1 as those with the potential to pose the greatest risk to the security of the Nation and formed the analytic basis of the SNRA. A prime example is tornados may also become national-level events that pose significant risk. Table 1 was not a complete list of risks that exist and stated that they will be reconsidered in future issues of the assessment. Supplementary threats and hazards, such as droughts, heat waves, winter storms, rain storms, and different types of technological/accidental or human-caused hazards, can also pose a risk to jurisdictions across the country and should be considered, as appropriate, in preparedness planning (DHS, 2017).

This varies from last week, due to the fact that natural threats were not mentioned high on the list in the WTA’s that were provided.  The basis for this is because we have had natural threats such as Katrina, Tsunamis, and global warming continues to rear its ugly head. A statistic that I found from “The Guardian”, stated that last year, earthquakes, floods, heatwaves and landslides left 22,773 people dead, affected 98.6 million others and caused $66.5bn (£47bn) of economic damage, yet the international community spends less than half of one per cent of the global aid budget on mitigating the risks posed by such hazards (Jones, 2017).

However, this factual evidence is still not enough to convince me that technological/accidental, and natural threats are greater than those of adversarial/human related threats. Although, I will admit that the natural threats of our environment are rising, I still think that the most logical threat remains in cyber and counter-intelligence terrorism. This is due to the tensions that lie within South and North Korea, Russia, China, and the constant topic of WMD proliferation within Iran and their sanctions of Nuclear research. I would like to have the opinion of the class on this topic, and why you think one way or the other?

David Mertz

 

References:

Jones, S. (2017). World heading for catastrophe over natural disasters, risk expert warns. the Guardian. Retrieved 12 April 2017, from https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/24/world-heading-for-catastrophe-over-natural-disasters-risk-expert-warns

DHS,. (2011). The Strategic National Risk Assessment in Support of PPD 8: A Comprehensive Risk-Based Approach toward a Secure and Resilient Nation (1st ed., pp. 1-7). The Strategic National Risk Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-strategic-national-risk-assessment-ppd8.pdf

 

LEE JACOB GARCIA

Compare and contrast the deductions about the national-level threats and hazards as listed by the DHS in the SNRA against the findings you made in Week 5’s analysis of the WTAs. As always, assume what is listed first is the greatest risk [also called “most dangerous”] and probability [also called “most likely”] and the last is least.

To compare and contrast the National-level threats listed on SNRA vs. the threats listed in WTA seems that it signifies different levels of magnitude and thresholds. SNRA is a National-level preparedness and response compared to the world threat assessment which I believe is more magnified which is the reason why we see different types of priorities. SNRA is to help identify the types of incidents that pose the greatest threat to the Nation’s homeland which are grouped into three categories: 1) natural hazards; 2) technological/accidental hazards; and 3) adversarial, human-caused threats/hazards (DHS, 2011).

Looking at SNRA, the Natural Hazard/Threat has the highest priority ranking because these are the types of incidents that are more likely the Nation will be dealing with which pose a great threat for our Nation’s homeland security. In comparison with the 2016 WTA, Cyber and Technology threat ranks the highest priority. Under SNRA, Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) is listed under the third category but when compared to WTA, they were listed second and third accordingly. Again, the SNRA’s list according to its priorities which are justified by the likeliness of these incident occurring in our Nation. With that said, Aircraft as a Weapon and Armed Assault are even listed as the top two priorities under Adversarial, human-caused threats/hazards for our Nation and not Terrorism or WMD.

Group two in SNRA listed Biological, Chemical, and Radiological contamination under accidental condition but in comparison with WTA, these are listed as actual threats that were used in other countries particularly the use of chemical weapons in Syria but North Korea has the highest threat for having these capabilities.

Given the “Natural” events that have occurred across America since 2006 [i.e. post-Katrina], are the ranking of riskiest/most dangerous events in the “Natural” threats and hazards in the table on p2 logical? Why or why not?

When considering logic, the results of the SNRA are largely classified and include a comparison of risks for potential incidents in terms of the likelihood (calculated as a frequency—i.e. number of events per year) and consequences of threats and hazards (DHS, 2011). Based on this, Earthquakes being top priority because of its frequencies and if you look at it in full spectrum and quantified the amount or damaged caused by earthquakes yearly, this might seem logical compared to floods, tsunamis or Hurricanes. But when looking at it in a different perspective like the most dangerous Natural disaster, I would place Hurricane on top of the list due to the unfortunate disaster caused by Hurricane Sandy. To compare Hurricane
Sandy to an Earthquake in the US, the magnitude and overall damaged caused by Sandy is incomparable.

Jake

Reference

Department of Homeland Security (DHS). (2011). Strategic National Risk Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-strategic-national-risk-assessment-ppd8.pdf